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Ranking Teams and Quality Wins

Posted by theknightswhosay on December 7, 2017 at 9:05 PM

I'm trying some new things for my rankings. If you want to know the details, see Full Blog.


Basically, I want to make sure teams are given more of their due for playing toudh opponents and for the ratings to rely less on good records against subpar teams.


I’m going to show the final top 10 for both this year and last year. If I had to make a list of teams most likely to compete well in a playoff now and at the end of last year, I’m not sure the membership of either top 10 or top 5 would be any different. Clemson would win obviously, but if I forced Clemson to be higher last year, the formula would move Central Florida higher this year. The whole point was to help teams with good opponents. Clemson and Penn St. were both safely in the top 4 and nearly tied last year, so I’m fine with how it turned out.


 

Now

1 Clemson 39.717752 (1)

2 Georgia 38.920924 (2)

3 Oklahoma 33.422577 (2)

4 Alabama 32.829833 (7)

5 Ohio St. 32.801820 (6)

6 UCF 32.794786 (5)

7 Auburn 32.580250 (10)

8 USC 32.413394 (8)

9 Wisconsin 32.266683 (4)

10 Notre Dame 32.227370 (9)


 

December 11, 2016

1 Alabama 43.268628 (1)

2 Ohio St. 37.306985 (3)

3 Penn St. 35.458147 (4)

4 Clemson 35.410836 (2)

5 Wisconsin 30.033484 (9)

6 Washington 28.799632 (5)

7 Colorado 27.670309 (11)

8 Michigan 26.841181 (7)

9 Florida St. 26.795726 (10)

10 Oklahoma 25.479138 (8)

(Western Michigan fell from 6th to 15th)

 

If you couldn’t tell, the number at the end is where the teams fell in my unweighted ratings.

 

If you're interested in the full lists, they are as follows:

2016 Pre-Bowl

2016 Final

Current

 

I think with so many more opponents in flux or not yet attaining enough points (for instance, only 4 teams qualified for the second-highest tier in my first list this year), the weighted version may be less useful early on. I plan to start publishing both lists at the usual times (Saturday night or early Sunday morning between about October 1 and December 15 and the night of the national championship) though.


Categories: College Football Blogs

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6 Comments

Reply Radatz
10:00 PM on December 7, 2017 
Looks pretty good. I do think Wisky proved they deserve higher ranking than 9 vs OSU, and Auburn had 3 losses so I don't see them there. But I understand. Interesting results. UCF doesn't get the credit it earned this year except maybe in this ranking.
Reply the immortal scurds
11:36 PM on December 7, 2017 
yeah im thinking wisky a little lo too. i wouldnt want to play them in a playoff
Reply JDIN827
8:34 AM on December 9, 2017 
Sorry but everyone keeps saying Bama played no one. Their loss was against a 3loss team. Best win against #17 LSU. Had it not been for a horrible loss Ohio State would be top 4, as they beat Penn State, Wisky, Michigan State all higher ranked than anything Bama did. I think I'm telling Urban to schedule Mercer right before Meeeeechigan too. Beating your arch rival in their house isn't a small feat either
Reply the immortal scurds
12:30 PM on December 9, 2017 
JDIN827 says...
Sorry but everyone keeps saying Bama played no one. Their loss was against a 3loss team. Best win against #17 LSU. Had it not been for a horrible loss Ohio State would be top 4, as they beat Penn State, Wisky, Michigan State all higher ranked than anything Bama did. I think I'm telling Urban to schedule Mercer right before Meeeeechigan too. Beating your arch rival in their house isn't a small feat either


i think your right about all of that
Reply Ark_Razor
2:20 AM on December 11, 2017 
If the Committee got it right last year, then they got it right this year also.

Beatdown losses against clubs that are sub .500 in the league should really really hurt.

However, the moral of the story is this- do NOT have a 9 game conference schedule. The only conferences yet to be shutout of the playoff are the only two that have 8 game conference schedules.
Reply Ark_Razor
2:23 AM on December 11, 2017 
the immortal scurds says...
yeah im thinking wisky a little lo too. i wouldnt want to play them in a playoff


Wisky might be my favorite CFB program. My dad went there. A good team will have little problem with them on a neutral field. Their QB could do nothing-
I mean he couldn't even make basic throws unless he could eat a sandwich in the pocket.

The only reason the Badgers even stayed in the game as long as they did against a clearly better Buckeye team is that they kept on self destructing.